No, Atlantic Ocean cooling doesn’t disprove global warming | Fact check

An Aug. 26 Instagram post (direct link, archive link) shows a headline attributed to New Scientist that reads, “The Atlantic Ocean is Cooling at Record Pace, and Nobody Knows Why.”The post also shows a meme with a nervous-looking person it labels as a “climate warrior” who is “caught in a lie.” The post’s caption includes the hashtag “#GlobalWarming.”
The post garnered more than 7,000 likes in more than two weeks.
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The New Scientist article referenced in the post reported that seasonal cooling in part of the Atlantic Ocean occurred more rapidly this year. However, this event does not change the overall long-term warming trend in Earth’s atmosphere and oceans due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, according to researchers.
The vast majority of global warming has occurred in the ocean, according to NASA. But ocean temperatures still fluctuate.
Researchers told USA TODAY that, while it proceeded more rapidly than usual this year, cooling in the Atlantic Ocean around the equator is an expected seasonal event.
“It is part of the normal seasonal variation in this region,” Michael McPhaden, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration oceanographer, told USA TODAY in an email. “This year the cooling happened unusually fast for reasons we do not quite understand yet.”
While the rate of seasonal cooling was relatively quick this year, it does not mean that climate change isn’t happening or has stopped somehow, according to Franz Tuchen, a NOAA oceanographer.
“Short-term ups and downs on top of the long-term warming trend are not unusual,” Tuchen told USA TODAY in an email. “However, this will not prevent the overall warming trend from continuing.”
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McPhaden agreed and emphasized that the rapid cooling is not permanent and only occurred in one part of the Atlantic Ocean − a body of water he says has warmed overall.
“The rapid drop in temperature that we have observed covers a relatively small part of the ocean near the equator and it is already moderating,” he said. “Typically, these equatorial Atlantic cooling events last only about three months before they disappear. The cooling from early this year to the present is a natural cycle that we see every year, sometimes stronger − like this year − sometimes weaker.”
McPhaden said the fact that it was stronger this year “does not even remotely constitute a refutation of the reality of human-caused climate change.”
“It’s important to understand the simple physics between rising concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global mean surface temperatures, melting glaciers and ice caps, disappearing Arctic sea ice, rising sea levels, more severe tropical storms and many other real trends in the climate system that are caused by fossil fuel combustion and deforestation,” he said.
Both Tuchen and McPhaden are quoted in the New Scientist article.
An archive of the New Scientist article from the day it was published shows the headline “The Atlantic is cooling at record speed and nobody knows why.” This is slightly different wording than the headline shown in the social media post, which reads “The Atlantic Ocean is Cooling at Record Pace, and Nobody Knows Why.”
A few days after publication, New Scientist changed the article’s headline to “Part of the Atlantic is cooling at record speed and nobody knows why.”
USA TODAY reached out to the Instagram user who shared the post for comment but did not receive a response.
AFP debunked a similar claim.
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